Market Data Trader » Swings http://marketdatatrader.com Wed, 06 Apr 2011 20:31:05 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1 30 Year Treasuries: Big Picture http://marketdatatrader.com/2009/11/01/30-year-treasuries-big-picture/ http://marketdatatrader.com/2009/11/01/30-year-treasuries-big-picture/#comments Sun, 01 Nov 2009 19:00:50 +0000 Alpha http://marketdatatrader.com/2009/11/01/30-year-treasuries-big-picture/ It’s very rare for modern trading blog sites to actually take a look at 30 years of history.  It’s not all that common for a trader to have that sort of data on hand.  But, today, we are looking at 30 years of history on the 30 year bond.  The chart that follows is the back adjusted futures contract for the US treasuries.  The series starts around 1977 and goes to the present.

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There are two things that should be blatantly obvious from looking at history.  First, 30 year treasury bonds have tended, over the past 30 years, to go up in price (in quite jagged price swings).  Secondly, price is currently exploring the lower boundaries of what historically has served as a pretty important guide for lower value. 

What does that translate to?  Expect upward pressure in 30 year bonds.  I can always be wrong.  And, I know at exactly what price levels to start reevaluating.  But, until price takes out those levels, I’m bullish bonds.  There is a very interesting, possibly longer term, move setting up.

As always, this is not trading advice.  This is market analysis.  You trade your own money at your own risk.  Please see the disclaimer on the side bar.  And, get ready, this is going to be a really interesting few weeks.

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