Sugar has a shot at testing key support at 20.25 this week. Just looking at the charts, this market is looking really toppy. What do I mean by "toppy”? My tells are the heavy consolidation and increased volatility at the end of a long run up in price. Those are all characteristic of market tops. Does it mean this market has topped? Hell, no. But, it certainly has caught my attention.
I’ve looked through my other indicators both fundamental and technical and I have some mixed feelings about this. Open interest and seasonals are very encouraging for the bearish play. But, my statistically validated indicators aren’t lining up. Furthermore, I just don’t see a solid story on the fundamental side. As always there is a high probability that my conservative stance will lead me to a place of some mild regret. Regardless, for now, watch that price action and general participation.
Key date: November 9th
Key price: 20.25
